.THERE IS minimal uncertainty regarding the most likely victor of Britain's standard election on July 4th: with a lead of twenty percentage factors in national opinion surveys, the Work Celebration is very very likely to succeed. But there is actually uncertainty regarding the dimension of Work's bulk in Britain's 650-seat Residence of Commons. Some polling companies have actually published chair prophecies utilizing an unique procedure known as multi-level regression as well as post-stratification (MRP). What are actually these polls-- as well as how exact are they?